• US private payrolls rose an average of 10,000 per week in the four-week period ending March 7, according to a preliminary estimate from ADP Research and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab
• Growth in US business activity slowed in March to an almost one-year low and prices paid for materials and other inputs picked up.
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  The S&P Global flash March composite index fell 0.5 point to 51.4, data released Tuesday showed. Figures above 50 indicate expansion

“The US flash PMI data for March challenges the FOMC benign stagflation narrative,” said Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “Input and output prices spiked due to the energy price jump caused by the war”

“The impact of the Iran conflict is starting to show up in the PMIs,” said Win Thin, chief economist at Bank of Nassau 1982. “The thinking goes that the US is much less vulnerable to the energy price spike than Europe or Asia, but it’s certainly not invulnerable”

EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.1589; private-sector activity in the euro area rose at the slowest pace since last May as the war stokes inflation while endangering a nascent economic recovery

AUD/USD dropped 0.7% to 0.6964
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Australia’s February CPI report is likely to show inflation holding steady above the Reserve Bank’s 2%-3% target band, according to James McIntyre at Bloomberg Economics

NZD/USD declined 0.6% to 0.5825; New Zealand’s central bank governor signaled policymakers won’t rush to raise interest rates in response to the Middle East conflict, saying they are prepared to wait out surging fuel costs provided the disruption doesn’t fan broader inflation pressures

USD/JPY advanced 0.2% at 158.79

Reporting by Anya Andrianova and Vassilis Karamanis